EIC CLMV Monitor ไตรมาส 3/2015

เอกสารฉบับนี้มีเฉพาะภาษาอังกฤษเท่านั้น
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Authors:
Teerin Ratanapinyowong

Phacharaphot Nuntramas, Ph.D.

Pitsinee Thitisomboon

Vorada Tantisunthorn

• Cambodia’s GDP is expected to grow 7.3% in 2015 with the key drivers from export of textile and apparels, along with the low oil prices throughout 2015 that will help improve domestic spending and decelerate inflation.
  
  
• Laos’s economy in 2015 is likely to slowdown from last year to a growth of 7.0% from the falling commodities prices which affected export of copper.
  
  
• Myanmar’s economy is expected to grow 8.3% in FY2015, however with the downside risk from the impact of flooding that damaged the country’s agricultural sector and likely to hike up country’s inflation rate.
  
  
• Vietnam’s economy is expected to increase 6.1% in 2015 from the strong growth in manufacturing and export especially in E&E sectors. While, the series of Dong devaluation following the Yuan devalued will help maintain the country’s export price competitiveness.
  
  
• Main threat for CLMV’s economy this year remain in the slowdown of China’s economy as it will directly and indirectly impact the global demand especially through those countries with strong economic ties with China including Japan and ASEAN 5. CLMV’s export to China is accounted for 11% of its total export.
  
  
• Thailand has played role to cope with CLMV infrastructure challenges, the government has recently allocated THB 5.5 trillion (US$179.85 billion) for planned infrastructure investments until 2019. Of these infrastructure investments, THB 243 billion (US$ 7.95 billion) are to build multiple four-lane highways to Thailand’s largest border crossings, and THB 403 billion (US$13.18 billion) for 768km of double-track rail lines extending through the Lao PDR and Cambodia.
  
  
• ASEAN is ready to announce the list of items in CLMV of which the tariffs shall be reduced further by 2018, so that entrepreneur can prepare themselves in advance. Moreover, the ASEAN trade databases will be launched by November 2015; these will tremendously facilitate especially SMEs to retrieve all trade-related data in a single place (like one-stop online data center for CLMV).

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Sources: ADB, Bloomberg, CEIC, IMF, World Bank