EIC ANALYSIS
EIC’s latest forecast points to continued expansion of the Thai economy at 4.0% YOY in 2018, buoyed by improving external demand and recovering investment. The tourism and export sectors will continue to be the main growth drivers of the economy this year thanks to strong fundamentals of the global economy. In 2018, exports of goods and the number of tourists are projected to expand at 5.0% YOY and 7.9% YOY, respectively. Sustained growth in exports has led to an increase in capacity utilization, lending support to private investment going forward. Moreover, private investment has an additional stimulus from the government’s infrastructure investment, particularly following the greater clarity in the Eastern Economic Corridor’ (EEC) project as the Thai parliament passed the EEC law. This project has a high potential in attracting both domestic and foreign investment. In addition, the concern over shortage of migrant labor has subsided, after the government postponed enforcement of the new regulation on undocumented migrant workers and eased the regulation’s rules of punishment.
OUTLOOK
  • EIC FORECASTS
    2017
    2018
  • GDP (% YOY)
    3.9% (a)
    4.0%
  • Export (% YOY)
    9.9% (a)
    5%
  • Policy Rate (% p.a.)
    1.5% (a)
    1.5%
  • Headline Inflation (% YOY)
    0.7% (a)
    1.1%
  • THB/USD
    32.6 (a)
    30-31
  • Oil Price-Brent ($/b) (Avg.)
    54 (a)
    64
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