Exports surged in May on low-base effect. EIC anticipates continual export growth momentum. However, effects from the latest COVID-19 outbreak in many countries, particularly ASEAN, warrant monitoring.

The value of Thai exports in May grew considerably by 41.6%YOY, marking an 11-years high. Excluding gold, export growth soared to 48.8%YOY. Key export products with high growth included automotive and parts, refined fuel, rubber products, plastic beads, and chemicals.

The low-base effect in the prior year strongly ushered export growth in May. In terms of the seasonally adjusted export growth, export growth in May somewhat softened according to the %MoM_sa contraction. Nevertheless, the export value at USD 23,057.9 million in May was higher than the pre-COVID-19 monthly average value in 2019. Furthermore, the posted export growth in May coincided with EIC’s 2021 full-year export forecast at 15.0%YOY.

During the remainder of 2021, the strong export recovery momentum should continue in line with better global economic conditions. Export growth in June should also expand substantially due to boosts from the low-base effect. However, growth should start to stall during the subsequent months as the effect weakens. Moreover, various risks warrant monitoring, including casualties from the newest round of COVID-19 outbreaks in various countries, especially in ASEAN, Thailand’s main trading partner as well as soaring freight costs from the subsequent wave of container shortages triggered by the outbreak in Southern China. As a result, the cost of transportation for Thai exporters will be higher than usual.