SCB EIC believes the February 8 election results have lowered political risks to the economy, as a new government is expected to form quickly and restore stability.
The new government is expected to assume office in May; enactment of the FY2027 budget is likely to be delayed by only 1–2 months.
SCB EIC assesses that the Bhumjaithai Party’s victory in the 8 February 2026 election, securing 193 seats out of 500 (based on unofficial results from the Election Commission of Thailand, pending official certification), is likely to lead to the formation of a stable government, ensuring policy continuity in public administration and to some extent reducing Thailand’s economic risks arising from political uncertainty.
The new government is likely to be able to assume office by May, implying that the process for preparing the FY2027 Budget Bill will be delayed by only 1–2 months. This is broadly in line with SCB EIC’s pre-election assessment and therefore is not expected to materially affect SCB EIC’s 2026 baseline macroeconomic assumptions, under which the Thai economy is projected to expand by 1.5%.
While many of the Bhumjaithai Party’s economic policies respond to the country’s needs to address structural challenges—through its “10 Plus” policy package aimed at driving Thailand’s economy to return to growth of above 3%—translating these initiatives into tangible outcomes remains highly challenging amid tighter fiscal constraints. This will require the government to prioritize and strike an appropriate balance between short-term economic stimulus measures and longer-term structural reform policies.
SCB EIC assesses that, if the government can effectively advance a package of economic restructuring policies over the medium term, alongside strengthening confidence and appropriately managing the budget and implementing fiscal reforms to preserve fiscal space in times of crisis and reduce risks to the country’s sovereign credit rating, this would support economic expansion in the period ahead.
Nevertheless, risks associated with this election remain to be monitored, particularly the possibility that barcodes on ballot papers could enable identification of voters, which may contravene election-related law and lead to a new election, as well as outcomes of political cases involving the former opposition party.