Preliminary Assessment of the Earthquake’s Economic Impact on Thailand

SCB EIC estimates (as of April 1, 2025) that the earthquake which occurred on March 28, 2025, has a limited impact on the Thai economy, amounting to approximately THB 30 billion. The impact is expected to be concentrated in the tourism sector, real estate, and construction businesses. However, close monitoring will be needed on the recovery of domestic consumer confidence and international tourist sentiment going forward.

The tourism sector is expected to experience a rapid short-term impact due to concerns among international tourists over safety in Thailand, in the wake of global news coverage of the earthquake. Under the baseline scenario, the number of international tourists is projected to decline by 400,000, based on the assumption that the most severe impact will occur in April. The recovery is expected to take approximately three months before returning to normal growth levels, primarily due to short-term trip cancellations during a period when the situation has not yet fully normalized.

The real estate sector, particularly condominiums, will likely be affected by shifts in consumer behavior among prospective buyers or those in the process of property transfers, who may delay their purchases or transfers. This is expected to lead to a contraction in condominium transfer volumes. In addition, the launch of new condominium projects is projected to continue declining throughout the year.

Most construction activities remain uninterrupted. Moreover, construction contractors and building materials businesses are expected to benefit from the repair and restoration of damaged structures. The disaster resilience of buildings will become an increasingly important consideration for project owners.  In addition, construction firms are likely to face stricter requirements from clients—ranging from the bidding process to construction and final inspection stages—which will, in turn, have a positive effect on the overall quality and standards of the construction sector.

Overall, the economic impact remains fluid and will largely depend on how quickly confidence can be restored across all sectors—a key factor in minimizing longer-term economic damage. Therefore, the government is recommended to provide assistance to affected individuals and work to restore public confidence. This includes conducting systematic safety inspections of buildings, developing timely emergency alert systems in high-risk areas, and ensuring clear, swift, and effective communication, supported by a coordinated and integrated response.