U.S. Imposes Tariffs of up to 972% on Thai Solar Cells, Pressuring Exports to Contract Near Zero by 2026
The imposition of such elevated AD/CVD rates by the U.S. is expected to severely impact Thailand’s solar panel and component export industry
On April 21, 2025, the U.S. announced the final determinations of anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) on solar panels and components imported from Thailand. Thai exports of solar panels and components to the U.S., which expanded by more than 47 times during the period 2015–2023, had largely been driven by the relocation of Chinese manufacturers to Thailand. This development led the U.S. to suspect that China was utilizing Thailand as a production base to circumvent tariffs imposed on Chinese exports to the U.S., resulting in the initiation of anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Thailand since April 2024.
Subsequently, in October–November 2024, the U.S. announced preliminary AD/CVD rates, followed by the final AD/CVD determinations on April 21, 2025. The final combined AD/CVD rates imposed on Thailand were significantly higher than the preliminary rates, ranging from 375.19% to as high as 972.23%. For instance, Sunshine Electrical and Taihua New Energy were subjected to a final duty rate of 972.23%, compared to the preliminary rate of 189.20%. Other Thai companies were assigned a final duty rate of 375.19%, compared to the preliminary rate of 80.72%.
The imposition of such elevated AD/CVD rates by the U.S. is expected to severely impact Thailand’s solar cell export industry, given that the U.S. market accounts for approximately 90% of Thailand’s total export value of solar panels and components.
SCB EIC Assesses that Thai Solar Panel and Component Exports to the U.S. Are Likely to Contract Near Zero by 2026, Driven by Two Key Factors 1) Loss of Price Competitiveness: Thailand has lost its price competitiveness relative to other Asian producers that are not subject to tariffs, as they were not accused of benefiting from Chinese subsidies or assembling Chinese components for export purposes. These countries include Laos, Indonesia, India, and South Korea. In addition, Thailand faces a significant disadvantage in tariff rates compared to Malaysia and Vietnam, which are subjected to minimum duty rates of only 14.64% and 120.69%, respectively, while Thailand faces a much higher rate of 375.19%. Even general Thai manufacturers encounter tariffs more than ten times higher than those imposed on Malaysian manufacturers. 2) Immediate Impact from Preliminary Tariffs: The impact of the preliminary AD/CVD tariffs has already manifested clearly. Since the preliminary duties were enforced in October–November 2024, Thailand has experienced a sharp decline in its U.S. market share, falling from 28% during the first two months of 2024 to just 6% in the first two months of 2025. Meanwhile, competitors such as Indonesia have expanded their share from 2% to 16%. Consequently, the value of Thailand’s solar panel exports to the U.S. contracted by 52% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, amounting to only THB 12.623 billion. Given that the final duty rates are significantly higher than the preliminary rates, SCB EIC anticipates that Thai solar panel and component exports to the U.S. will nearly disappear by 2026.
SCB EIC views that Thai manufacturers of solar panels and components can undertake three strategic actions to alleviate the adverse effects of the U.S. tariff measures:
1. Positioning as Midstream Component Suppliers: Thai producers can pivot to supplying midstream components to solar panel manufacturing facilities located in countries less affected by the U.S.–China trade conflict. For example, Thai manufacturers could produce intermediate parts for assembly into solar panels at plants in India.
2. Accelerating Export Market Diversification: Manufacturers should expedite the expansion of exports to countries with strong potential in solar power generation, such as India, countries in the Middle East, Europe, and Australia.
3. Expanding Revenue Streams into Clean Energy Production: Firms should broaden their business into clean energy generation both domestically and internationally, leveraging their cost advantages and accumulated experience in the clean energy sector to diversify and enhance revenue streams.
The Government Should Accelerate Investment Promotion Policy Adjustments to Align with the Evolving Global Trade Context At the same time, the government should expedite the adjustment of its investment promotion policies to align with the changing landscape of international trade. In particular, there is a need to enhance the screening and monitoring of manufacturing facilities operating in Thailand to ensure compliance with Thailand’s investment promotion regulations, as well as global and partner countries’ trade rules. Furthermore, continuous monitoring of projects that may be perceived as “indirect production bases” for countries engaged in trade conflicts, such as China, is crucial. Such measures would ensure that production activities conform to both Thailand’s investment promotion framework and the trade regulations of partner countries, thereby reducing the risk of Thailand becoming a target of future trade protectionist measures.
