Aftershocks Start to Shake Thailand’s Tourism Sector
SCB EIC’s initially assessed earthquake would been rapidly affected Thai tourism in short term
The Mega Earthquake on March 28 Begins sending aftershock through Thailand’s Tourism Sector
According to the preliminary data from the first two days after the mega earthquake indicates that approximately 1,100 hotel bookings were canceled across the country, with significantly in Bangkok. In addition, a survey conducted by the Thai Hotels Association on April 3, 2025 shows that advance bookings for the Songkran festival (April 11–17, 2025) have dropped by approximately -25% compared to last year. This is reflected safety concerns, resulting in foreign tourists to closely monitor the situation before making travel decisions to Thailand. Furthermore, governments in several countries have updated their travel advisory for Thailand following earthquake by advising their citizens to monitor local media and follow instructions from local authorities.
SCB EIC’s initially assessed earthquake would been rapidly affected Thai tourism in short term. The number of foreign tourists this year is projected to decline by approximately 200,000 to 700,000 throughout the recovery period.
Case 1 – Better Case: Foreign tourists in April decline by approximately -9% MOM, with a recovery period of around two months. As a result, total foreign tourists in 2025 are projected to fall short of the original estimates by about 195,000 throughout the recovery period, resulting in an estimated loss of revenue from foreign tourist spending of approximately THB 9.53 billion.
Case 2 – Base Case: Foreign tourists in April decline by approximately -12% MOM, with a recovery period of around three months. Under this scenario, total foreign tourists in 2025 are projected to fall short of the original estimates by about 420,000 throughout the recovery period, resulting in an estimated loss of revenue from foreign tourist spending of approximately THB 20.6 billion.
Case 3 – Worse Case: Foreign tourists in April decline by approximately -15% MOM, with the recovery of around four months. Under this scenario, foreign tourists in 2025 are expected to fall short of the original estimates by about 680,000 throughout the recovery period, resulting in an estimated loss of revenue from foreign tourist spending of approximately THB 33.0 billion.
Nevertheless, the tourism sector still has the potential to recover sooner if the government acts effectively to restore foreign tourist confidence. SCB EIC’s original projections of 38.2 million foreign tourists in 2025 will be revised once more information about the tourism outlook available.
Urgently restoring foreign tourist confidence in safety, coupled with promptly implementing various domestic tourism stimulus measures, will be key to accelerating the recovery of Thailand’s tourism sector.
The government should urgently restore foreign tourist confidence by conducting safety inspections of hotels and high-rise tourist attractions. At the same time, proactive communication should be made to ensure that foreign tourists can access clear and reliable information. Additionally, the rapid development of mobile emergency alert system is essential so foreign tourists can receive timely updates and be properly prepared for any unforeseen incidents.
Furthermore, instantly implementing domestic tourism stimulus measures—such as the “We Travel Together” program—can help mitigate the impact from the slowdown in foreign tourists, while also boost to domestic economic activity.
