Trump Announces Major U.S. Import Tariff Hike — Thailand Hit with 36% Rate, Faces Severe Risks from Global Trade Contraction

SCB EIC views that Trump’s sweeping import tariff announcement on April 2 could raise the United States’ effective tariff rate by as much as 18–22%, exerting significant pressure on the U.S. economy and global trade while intensify global trade competition.

 Thailand is among the countries most affected by the tariff hike, facing an import tariff of 36%—ranking 20th out of 185 U.S. trading partners globally, and 10th in Asia. This rate is significantly higher than the global average U.S. tariff increase of 16% and the Asian average of 21%. The primary reason is the large trade deficit the U.S. runs with Thailand.

SCB EIC estimates that the Thai economy will be considerably affected, particularly through exports. The impact will stem both directly—from Thailand’s high export exposure to the U.S., its largest single-country export market—and indirectly, through the economic slowdown of key trading partners such as China. In addition, global trade competition is expected to intensify both domestically and internationally, as countries worldwide scramble to find new markets. This environment may also lead to a “wait-and-see” stance among investors interested to invest in Thailand.

The Thai government should urgently engage in negotiations to mitigate the impact of this sweeping tariff package by focusing on issues prioritized by the United States—particularly those highlighted in the March 2025 National Trade Estimate Report by the United States Trade Representative (USTR). These include three key areas: reducing the trade surplus with the U.S., lowering non-tariff trade barriers, and addressing critical issues such as intellectual property violations and labor rights. Any negotiation strategy should consider Thailand’s overall national interest and include mechanisms to appropriately manage sector-specific impacts.