Thailand’s export growth momentum started to stall in April following China’s lockdowns and slowing global demand prompted by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Author: Poonyawat Sreesing, Ph.D. and Vishal Gulati




Thailand’s merchandise export  in April grew by a significantly lower rate.

Exports in April expanded by 9.9%YOY (compared to the same period in the prior year). Despite the consecutive 14 months growth, such growth was significantly lower than the 19.5%YOY in the previous month. Exports, excluding gold, grew by 8.9%, slowing from the previous month at 9.5%. However, arms and ammunition exports to Japan surged during the month, with the export value reaching as high as USD 109.59 million. Such support from arms and ammunition exports should be short-lived and did not reflect Thailand’s overall export conditions.

 

Exports to China contracted for the first time in 17 months.

In terms of export destinations, exports to nearly all key destinations contracted, stalled, or remained stable, with surging growth only to CLMV and Hong Kong. Notable challenges that undermined growth included exports to China that contracted for the first time in 17 months at -7.2%, and exports to EU28 that dropped to a 14 month low (0.0%). Meanwhile, exports to Russia and Ukraine continued to tumble by -76.8% and -94.9%, respectively. On the contrary, exports to Switzerland continued to soar by 392.2% mainly due tothe high value of gold exports.

 

Automotive and computer exports shrank.

Exports of nearly all key products continued to grow, though various key categories contracted or slowed, including (1) exports of agricultural products grew by 3% from the support of cassava products and rice, though fruits and rubber exports undermined growth, (2) exports of agro-industrial products expanded by 22.8% driven by animal or vegetable fats and oil, sugar, and animal feed, (3) exports of industrial products improved by 8.3% following exports of aircraft, iron, steel, chemicals, aluminum products, and electronic integrated circuits, with exports of computers, automotive and parts, and rubber products undermining growth, and (4) exports of mining and fuel products increased by 39% with refined fuel export driving growth.

 

Import growth considerably exceeded export growth, prompting a trade deficit.

Imports growth in April reached a 4 month high at 21.5%. During the month, imports in nearly all key categories improved, including fuel products (+99.3%) with growth following heightening prices due to the war in Ukraine, capital goods (+10.9%), consumer goods (+1.2%), and raw materials and intermediate raw materials (+11.7%). However, imports of vehicles and transportation equipment (-25.2%) shrank. With such regards, the trade deficit during the month registered at USD -1,908.4 million, causing the trade deficit during the first 4 months of 2022 at USD -2,852.4 million.