Author: Supree Srisamran ,Ph.D. and Issarasan Kantaumong
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- The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has downgraded Thailand’s aviation safety rating from Category 1 to Category 2. The revision results in a ban of Thai carriers from expanding current services nor adding new routes in the U.S.
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- EIC expects the downgrade to have limited impact on Thailand’s aviation and tourism sectors. Among Thai operators, Thai Airways International used to be the only airline with services in the U.S. However, it has cancelled its Bangkok-Seoul-Los Angeles route since October 2015. As of now, the airline has no plan to open any new route to the U.S. Therefore, Thai carriers should not be substantially affected by the FAA’s decision. Additionally, inbound passengers have several alternative routes to travel to Thailand. Thus, the impact on Thailand’s tourism is limited.
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- The upcoming EASA evaluation, which could follow the same pattern as FAA’s, needs to be closely monitored. Case studies from Indonesia and the Philippines show that European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) audit results are usually in line with the FAA’s. In the case of Indonesia, the FAA announced its safety rating downgrade in April 2007, followed by a ban of Indonesian carriers from flying to European countries by the EASA in June 2007. Similarly, the FAA lowered the Philippines’ aviation safety rating in 2008, and, in 2010, the EASA banned Philippines carriers from entering the EU.
- Nonetheless, even if the EASA bans Thai carriers in the EU, EIC expects that Thai Airways International will not be blacklisted. The EASA is likely to announce results for Thailand’s aviation standards by December 10th, 2015and there are some risks that Thai carriers will get blacklisted as in the cases of Indonesia and the Philippines. However, Thai Airways International is the only Thai carrier flying to Europe and it has obtained the IOSA (IATA Operational Safety Audit) certification for safety assessment.In light of this, EIC expects that Thai Airways may still be allowed to maintain its operations in Europe, as in the case of Indonesia; with four Indonesian-registered airlines exempted from the EASA blacklist and allowed to fly to Europe.
- Both the red flag from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the safety rating downgrade by the FAA mark a turning point for Thailand to ramp up effort to improve its aviation safety standards. Concerns raised by the ICAO’s and FAA’s ratings should prompt public and related-private stakeholders to collaborate carefully to raise Thailand’s aviation safety standards. In particular, the issuance process of Air Operator’s Certificate (AOC) should be revamped to bring back confidence in the Thai aviation industry. Lessons from India show that better FAA’s rating can be achieved in a short period, if safety concerns are resolved. In response to the FAA’s downgrade, India reformed its AOC issuance process and was finally upgraded to FAA’s Category 1 within one year.
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