Thailand’s household debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 86.7% at end-2025, while a fragile labour market and elevated living costs are expected to further constrain household debt-servicing capacity.
SCB EIC assesses that Thailand’s household debt problem is likely to face rising risks.
Thailand’s household debt in Q4-2025 returned to slight growth of 0.05%YOY after contracting for three consecutive quarters, bringing the household debt-to-GDP ratio to 86.7% at end-2025. This increase was driven mainly by the expansion of personal consumption loans, while credit for investment and business operations continued to contract.
Loans extended through savings cooperatives and pawnshops increased markedly, reflecting a shift by Thai households toward more accessible and flexible borrowing sources, as mainstream financial institutions have remained stringent in their lending standards.
SCB EIC assesses that the debt-servicing risks facing Thai households are likely to increase in the period ahead, driven by two key factors: (1) a more fragile labour market, as reflected in a rising unemployment rate and a continued decline in the number of employed persons; and (2) inflationary pressures stemming from the war in the Middle East, which are raising living costs, weighing on workers’ real incomes, and potentially affecting employment in certain businesses.