Global Supply Set for Turbulence… the United States Moves to Impose a 25% Tariff on AI Chips

The United States Proceeds with Issuing a New Announcement to Impose a 25% Import Tariff on certain AI Chips

The United States has announced the imposition of a 25% import tariff on certain advanced chips and related products under Section 232, applicable to imports from all countries, including Thailand, effective January 15, 2026. The primary objective of this measure is to strengthen the domestic chip manufacturing supply chain and reduce reliance on imported chips, particularly advanced chips. The tariff increase will affect only specific categories of advanced chips, the measure targets high-end processors, namely high Total Processing Performance (TPP) and DRAM bandwidth. Such as Nvidia’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X chips, which are used for advanced processing in various high-technology industries. Nevertheless, in the initial phase, certain exemptions will apply, with a 0% tariff granted in some cases for advanced chips that do not meet the specified criteria, such as those intended for U.S. data centers, research and development (R&D), and startup companies, among others.

The increase in U.S. tariffs on advanced chips is expected to have an impact on the global semiconductor supply chain.

The increase in tariffs on advanced chips is expected to have a significant impact on the global semiconductor supply chain, as the United States currently remains highly dependent on overseas chip production. This comes amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, which has continued to intensify and may disrupt global supply. As a result, the United States has accelerated the use of additional tariff measures in parallel with the CHIPS Act to incentivize the reshoring of manufacturing capacity. SCB EIC assesses that this round of tariff increases will lead to higher global chip production costs and trigger a restructuring of the semiconductor supply chain, with increased investment shifting toward the U.S. market in response to tariff-related pressures.

Thailand may be affected by the increase in chip tariffs across multiple dimensions, including trade and investment.

1) Trade: Thailand’s exports of electronic products to the U.S. market are expected to be relatively limited in terms of direct impact, as most of the chips exported by Thailand (HS Code 8541) are used in general electronic products and continue to benefit from a 0% tariff rate. In addition, Thai products classified under the customs tariff codes specified by the United States (HS Codes 8471.50, 8471.80, and 8473.30) do not fall within the definition of “advanced chips” subject to the tariff. However, looking ahead, Thailand may face indirect impacts through exports of related components to other key trading partners, such as China, Taiwan, and Japan.

2) Investment: The increase in U.S. chip tariffs may affect investment in Thailand, although Thailand has remained an attractive destination for investment in the electronics industry and has continued to attract strong foreign investment in recent years. This is reflected in the latest data for the first nine months of 2025, during which foreign investors applied for investment promotion in the electrical and electronics (E&E) industry, accounting for approximately 21% of total investment applications, with a total investment value of 181,670 million baht. However, tariff measures aimed at reshoring manufacturing to the United States may introduce volatility into the global semiconductor supply chain, which could, in turn, affect investment trends across ASEAN, including investment in Thailand’s electronics industry. Moreover, higher tariffs on advanced chips may lead to a short-term surge in global AI chip prices, potentially affecting the data center industry that has been expanding its investments in Thailand, as operators may face higher AI infrastructure costs.

Relevant business operators need to promptly formulate strategies to address the emerging risks.

SCB EIC assesses that Thai operators in the electronics industry need to urgently adjust their business strategies to prepare for emerging risks, in order to enhance competitiveness and maintain their role within the global semiconductor supply chain. In the short term, relevant operators should develop risk assessment plans for products classified under customs tariff codes that are expected to be affected—both directly and indirectly—by the U.S. chip tariff increases, while also diversifying market exposure toward higher-potential Asian markets to reduce reliance on the United States, such as ASEAN, Japan, and Taiwan. In the long term, although Thailand’s upstream chip production remains relatively limited, the country retains a competitive advantage as a strong base for electronic product assembly. Accordingly, the public and private sectors should work jointly to accelerate the development of a highly skilled workforce aligned with labor market needs, alongside promoting investment in research and development to drive higher value-added upstream production. These efforts would contribute to building a more robust manufacturing supply chain capable of attracting greater foreign investment in the future.

As the chip war continues without a clear end and increasingly becomes a critical instrument of technological competition, accelerating adaptation to withstand these shocks is no longer a choice but a necessity to sustain the competitiveness of the electronics industry in the global market in the period ahead.