Who’s Afraid of Automation?

Author: Sutapa Amornvivat, Ph.D.

Published in Bangkok Post newspaper / In Ponderland column 20 July 2016

The recent Toyota Motor Thailand's layoff of 800 employees has caused quite a stir. Luckily, this incident turned out to be an isolated case, and not a prelude to mass unemployment. Yet, a real threat is imminent as the world’s economies, advanced and emerging alike, are entering a brave new world of automation.

Isn’t it alarming that 72% of Thai jobs could be at risk of being replaced by robots?

I kid you not. According to the 2016 World Development Report, the threat of automation—robots performing jobs humans used to do—is indeed biased against the developing world, where two-thirds of jobs involve a lot of routine tasks. In contrast, the developed world fares better, with the figure at 47% for the US and 35% for the UK; still a worryingly high figure nonetheless.

Based on Oxford University report, the probability of replacement is 80% or higher for telemarketers, taxi drivers, and various manufacturing assemblers. Time-consuming tasks such as housekeeping services might be completed by robotic vacuum cleaners, which are available at 3,000 baht with one year warranty. On the other hand, jobs that require high degree of socialization and interactions with creative thinking face less threat from automation. For examples, the probability is less than 15% for kindergarten teachers, food scientists, and technologists.

How soon is this future of automation?

A survey result in the Future of Jobs report by the World Economic Forum puts the expected timeframe for advanced robotics and autonomous transport as well as artificial intelligence and machine learning at around 2018-2020.  It is certainly hard to tell if this vision will become reality as predicted. Asking this question a few weeks ago would have fetched a higher vote of confidence than today. The recent tragic incident with Tesla’s Autopilot system that failed to apply the brakes in respond to a sudden turn of an 18-wheel tractor-trailer, showed that some tasks remain too complex and too intuitive for present day’s most advanced technologies.

Yet, to dismiss this trend altogether would be a big mistake. Rapid technology advancement has cut the breakeven points for the most popular auto robots used in China to only 1.7 years and less than half a year in metal manufacturing in Germany. Adding up all the benefits will stimulate interest across diverse industries to adopt autos. Experts predict that the market volume of automation will increase at least fourfold over the next ten years.

What does it mean for ASEAN?

This technological disruption means a bumpy road might be anticipated ahead of us. This region has been spotlighted with promising potential that our young and populous labor forces, along with their growing appetite for consumer goods, can ignite economic growth. But the threat of robots can tip the balance of this comparative advantage.

Multinational corporations operating in ASEAN might possibly substitute the semi-skill workers in manufacturing with robots and shift their labor-intensive production back home. Out of ASEAN’s population of 625 million people, at least 122 million people are currently employed in the four most vulnerable jobs to automation—including administrative, secretarial, sales and machine operatives. Let’s imagine what would happen if one million call center jobs in the Philippines—one of the largest outsourced call center destinations—suddenly disappear due to cyborg telemarketers, a more advanced version of Apple’s Siri?

Without jobs, people will not have decent income to spend. The arrival of automation may cause the populous labor force to lose their jobs. These people may not translate to large consumer base. Instead they would become more burdens on social welfare, widening the income gap between business owners and blue-collar workers.

Additionally, the prosperity concept has changed to “the fast fish eats the slow fish.” Established companies that fail to ride the wave of technological innovation are also exposed to high risks. Sharp and Toshiba, of which productions are based in Thailand, are recently acquired by foreign firms, Taiwan’s Foxconn and China’s Midea, respectively, partially because they are too slow to adapt.

The shortage of labor in Thailand today will  act as a catalyst for earlier adoption of technology. The danger is that our fast-ageing workforce still remains complacent until it is too late.

Then, how should we embrace the future of Automation?

Automation is not all bad; it brings new opportunities for people who are adaptable to changes. We must ride on this trend and figuring ways to co-exist with these technological revolutions. Robots can free workers from doing mundane tasks, motivating them to find a newer and more exciting career. Asked what the most promising industries are for job creation in the future, a survey by Citi Research reveals that the top-3 consists of IT sector, especially big data and artificial intelligence; industrial sector, especially control systems and robotics; and health and medical sector. These are highly skilled jobs.

Considering where we are today in terms of skill set of our workforce, there is certainly a big gap. We need greater emphasis on on-the-job training to help improve technical skills of existing labors. At the same time, we need to make sure that children in schools today have the right capability to be critical thinkers and innovators, telling those hard-working robots what to do. More emphasis on the STEM subjects— science, technology, engineering, and mathematics– will broaden career options in the age of human-machine interface. Training on soft skills, such as emotional empathy and leadership, is equally essential.

Not only do we need to encourage our teachers to provide relevant and high-quality lessons, but we also need to motivate the parents and the children to recognize the value of investment in education.  

Are we late in the game? Now is the time to raise awareness of this technological revolution and to get all stakeholders involved in readying our future workforce for a new kind of human-robot relationships. Regardless of business size, preparing for mechanization and artificial intelligence is a must.

Forward-thinking parents should inspire their children to become the next-generation leaders who are ready to face the complex tasks of dealing with automation. The more we prepare them, the more confident they will be when they enter the working reality.