Thai exports in February 2026

Thai exports in February 2026 slowed but still recorded strong growth of 9.9%YOY, with export value reaching USD 29,439.7 million. This represented a deceleration from the previous month’s high growth of 24.4%YOY and was lower than earlier estimates (SCB EIC and the Reuters Poll median projected 15.8%). Seasonally adjusted export value contracted sharply from the previous month by -11.1%MOM_SA. Overall, Thai export value during the first two months of this year still expanded strongly by 17% (Figure 1 and 2), prior to the onset of the Iran conflict on February 28.

Exports this month were mainly driven by electronic products, while the US remained a key trading partner.

(1)   Exports of electronic products expanded strongly by more than 56.8%YOY, including computers, equipment and parts; electronic calculating machine; Teleprinters, telephone sets and parts; radio transmission equipment, telegraph, telephone and television equipment; and electrical transformers and parts, which increased by 49.8%, 41.8%, 217.6%, 251.5%, and 47.1%, respectively. Growth continued to be supported by the upcycle in the global electronics cycle and expanding investment in the electronics industry and Data center infrastructure worldwide. Exports of Thai electronic products to 11 out of the 15 key trading partners continued to expand. Overall, electronic products contributed 9.5 percentage points to Thailand’s export growth (CTG) this month, accounting for almost the entirety of the total export expansion of 9.9%.

(2)   Thai exports to the US expanded strongly by 40.5%YOY, slightly moderating from the previous month. Exports of electronic products not yet subject to additional US import tariffs surged by as much as 97.8%, while other product categories (excluding electronics) grew by 9.7%, reflecting continued strong demand for Thai products in the US market despite relatively high import tariff barriers of 19% (before being reduced to 10% under Section 122 following the Supreme Court’s ruling that the US administration does not have the authority to impose import tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)).
Among Thailand’s key export products to the US, 13 out of the top 15 items recorded solid expansion. Overall, exports to the US contributed 7.3 percentage points to Thailand’s export growth (CTG) this month, out of the total export expansion of 9.9%.

(3)   Gold exports expanded by only 18.2%YOY, slowing markedly from the strong growth of 136.2%YOY in the previous month, partly reflecting the decline in global gold prices during this period. Exports of unwrought gold contributed only 0.5 percentage points to Thailand’s export growth (CTG) this month, compared with a much larger contribution of 2.7 percentage points in the previous month.

Imports surged to the highest level in 50 months, driven by raw and intermediate materials, and capital goods—particularly gold.

The value of merchandise imports in February stood at USD 32,273.3 million, expanding by 31.8%YOY—the highest level in 50 months. This marked an acceleration from 29.4%YOY in the previous month and was higher than earlier estimates (SCB EIC projected 20.5%, while the Reuters Poll median forecast was 25%). The expansion in imports was mainly driven by the following key categories (Figure 3 and 4).

(1)   Imports of raw and intermediate materials expanded strongly by 53.3%YOY, close to the level recorded in the previous month. This category contributed 22.5 percentage points to Thailand’s import growth (CTG) this month—accounting for more than half of the total import expansion of 31.8%YOY. Key imported products included gold and electrical and electronic components, which increased by more than 165% and 84.8%, respectively (CTG: 10.8% and 8.1%). Imports of electrical and electronic components were partly driven by demand for upstream and midstream inputs used in production and exports, with Thailand relying on major suppliers such as China and Taiwan for these products.

(2)   Imports of capital goods expanded strongly by 49.3%YOY, accelerating from 29.5%YOY in the previous month. This category contributed 11.7 percentage points to Thailand’s total import growth (CTG) of 31.8%YOY. Key imported items included electrical machinery and parts, and mechanical machinery and parts, which increased by 91.0% and 19.2%, respectively (CTG: 6.8% and 1.4%). This partly reflects Thailand’s still-limited domestic production capacity for such capital goods, alongside rising investment trends in technology-related industries, such as Data center infrastructure, which have led to stronger demand for machinery and technology-related imports.

The customs-basis trade balance recorded a continued deficit of USD -2,833.6 million this month. Overall, during the first two months of this year, Thailand registered a cumulative trade deficit of USD -6,137.1 million.

SCB EIC assesses that Thailand’s international trade this year will face increasing external pressures, with the Middle East conflict and higher US import tariffs further exacerbating the trade deficit.

1)     Middle East conflict: Although the overall impact on Thai exports is expected to be relatively limited—given Thailand’s low dependence on the Middle East market (accounting for 3.7% of Thailand’s total export value in 2025)—some industries may face significant effects due to their high export concentration in the region. These include wood and wood products (18.2% of total exports in this category), fresh/chilled/frozen fish (15.4%), rice (13.4%), and automobiles, equipment and parts (13.1%).
In addition, Thai exports may be indirectly affected through a slowdown in the global economy, particularly in Asian and European markets, which rely heavily on energy imports from the Middle East (together accounting for 65% of Thailand’s export markets). Nevertheless, the conflict in the Middle East is likely to push up prices of Thai export products linked to oil and commodities, such as palm oil, cassava, sugar, and natural rubber (Figure 5, left).

2)     Thailand’s trade balance is likely to deteriorate further in line with rising energy prices, as Thailand is a high net energy importer, accounting for around 8% of GDP (Figure 5, right), with as much as 59% of total energy imports sourced from the Middle East. In addition, prices of other imported raw materials and transportation costs are also expected to increase, further worsening the existing trade deficit trend since the COVID-19 crisis—particularly due to the substantial rise in imports from China—thereby weighing on overall economic growth.

3)     US import tariffs under Section 301: Although Thai exports may receive short-term support from the reduction in US import tariffs to 10% after the US Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration did not have the authority to impose import tariffs on trading partners under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the US government subsequently shifted to exercising authority under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, announcing a temporary 10% import tariff on all countries for a period of 150 days (from February 24 to July 24).

However, on March 12, the United States further announced an investigation into 16 trading partners under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 concerning issues related to structural excess capacity, with Thailand included among the countries subject to investigation.
SCB EIC finds that the US trade deficit with Thailand increased in 2025, with Thailand rising to 7th place among countries with the largest trade surplus with the United States, up from 10th place in 2024. This development reflects a heightened risk that Thailand may face additional US import tariffs after July under Section 301 following the completion of the investigation (Figure 5, middle).

In the announcement of Thailand’s international trade figures for February 2026, the Ministry of Commerce released its latest projections for Thai export value in 2026 under three scenarios as follows:

• Best-case scenario: 1.1%YOY
• Baseline scenario: -1%YOY
• Worst-case scenario: -3%YOY

SCB EIC is currently reviewing Thailand’s 2026 economic outlook, including the directions of export and import values, under the evolving Middle East conflict scenario, and will release updated projections by the end of March.

Under the base case, SCB EIC assesses that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be disrupted for 2–6 weeks.

Under the base case, some energy infrastructure will be attacked, and Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz for 2–6 weeks, resulting in the average Brent crude oil price rising to USD 75/bbl.

If the conflict escalates into a regional war, disrupting energy transportation across the region to be disrupted, the average Brent crude oil price could rise significantly to USD 107/bbl.

The global economy faces downside risks from the war in the Middle East.

Under the base case, in which Brent crude averages USD 75/bbl this year, global inflation would rise by around 0.4 percentage points (pp), while global GDP could decline by around 0.2–0.4 pp.

Rising inflationary pressures may lead major central banks to delay further monetary policy easing. The U.S. Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious wait-and-see approach and postpone policy rate cuts amid heightened inflation risks, in addition to the effects of higher global import tariffs.

Thailand’s economy in 2026 may grow 0.3–0.8 pp more slowly, while inflation may return to the target range sooner.

SCB EIC assesses that, under the base case in which the average Brent crude oil price rises to USD 75/bbl this year, Thailand’s economy may expand 0.3 pp more slowly. Under the worst-case scenario, the average Brent crude oil price may reach USD 107/bbl, and Thailand’s economy may slow by as much as 0.8 pp.

Thailand’s inflation in 2026 is likely to rise to 1.5%, returning to the 1–3% target range sooner as a result of rising global energy prices. However, if the situation escalates into a regional war, inflation could rise to above 4%.

SCB EIC assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may have room to further ease the policy interest rate in response to risks arising from the war in the Middle East.

The business sector faces risks of disruption in energy, transportation, and raw materials.

Thai businesses are affected by the war in the Middle East through both direct and indirect channels.  Although exports to this region account for only a limited share, some industries rely relatively heavily on this market, such as certain agricultural and food products and passenger vehicles. Other businesses, meanwhile, face pressure from rising energy costs, transportation disruptions, and accelerating raw material prices, which will have knock-on effects throughout related supply chains. At the same time, the tourism and healthcare sectors remain at risk of slowing due to travel disruptions and safety concerns.

However, essential agricultural and food products, as well as certain energy crops, may benefit from stockpiling demand and rising global prices.

The MPC voted 4 to 2 to cut the policy rate from 1.25% to 1.0%, citing the need to ease financial conditions, relieve SME and household debt burdens, anchor medium-term inflation expectations, and support business adaptation amid a shifting global order. Meanwhile, the two dissenting members voted to maintain the policy rate, viewing the 1.25% level as already appropriate for prevailing economic and financial conditions.

Overall, the MPC views the policy rate at 1% as sufficient and consistent with the economic outlook. In this meeting, the committee placed greater emphasis on medium-term financial stability risks associated with a low-interest rate environment and the need to preserve remaining policy space under elevated uncertainty. It reiterated that structural problems require a policy mix and cannot be resolved by policy interest rate alone.

The MPC views the Thai economy as fragile, with inflation facing downside risks.

• The MPC assesses that the Thai economy is likely to expand more than previously projected, but will still remain significantly below its potential. Growth is expected at around 2.0%YOY in 2026 and 2027, meaningfullybelow the BOT’s estimated potential growth rate of 2.7%YOY, with a clearly K-shaped recovery pattern. SME growth is expected to remain below pre-COVID-19 levels, while labor income growth is expected to decelerate.
• On trade policy, the MPC expects increased uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariffs. In the near term, U.S. tariffs are likely to ease modestly,though the U.S. administration may invoke authorities under Sec. 232 (national security-related products) and Sec. 301 (unfair international trade practices) to raise tariffs again. The FY2027 budget delay risk has diminished, given improving prospects for government formation.
• Inflation faces increased downside risks, driven by both lower energy prices and government cost-of-living subsidy measures. Headline inflation is projected to return to the lower bound of the target range in H2/2027, later than previously assessed in H1/2027. In addition, demand-side inflation pressure remain limited, in line with an economy growing below its potential.

SMEs are facing tight financial conditions, both in terms of access to credit and the appreciation of the Thai baht.

• SMEs continue to face high financial costs, while credit has been contracting persistently. The BOT finds that despite cumulative policy rate cuts of 125 bps, new loan rates for micro-SMEs have actually risen by 150 bps over the past 15 months. This reflects rising credit risk among small businesses and tighter bank lending standards.
• Baht appreciation has further tightened financial conditions for exporters through FX conversion losses. A BOT analysis finds that exporting SMEs in exchange rate–sensitive sectors — such as agriculture, agro-processing, and textiles and garments — saw a significant profit decline in 2025 during the baht appreciation episode.

The MPC views the policy rate at 1% as “sufficient” to support the economy under limited policy space.

• The MPC assesses that a policy rate of 1% is sufficiently accommodative, consistent with the economic outlook and the need to preserve policy space. The effective lower bound remains 0.50% — equivalent to the COVID-era floor — leaving 50 bps of conventional space in reserve for severe downside scenarios.
• The MPC will monitor risks to financial stability in a low-interest rate environment. In this meeting, the committee discussed two key issues as follows:

o   Search-for-yield behavior stemming from low deposit interest rates: investments in riskier assets have increased since the first rate cut in October 2024. However, the MPC does not view this as concerning at present.

o   Credit misallocation: ultra-low rates could increase the number of zombie firms through lower financing costs, or encourage large firms to channel borrowing into low-productivity activities. Nevertheless, such risks may not yet be a major concern, given the continued caution of financial institutions.

• The MPC emphasized that Thailand’s structurally low growth cannot be addressed by monetary policy alone. A low interest rate is only one tool to facilitate the economy’s adjustment toward stronger growth. Economic policies to enhance competitiveness, along with targeted financial measures, will be critically important.

The value of Thai exports in January 2026 stood at USD 31,573.1 million, expanding by 24.4%YOY — the highest growth rate in four years. This marked an acceleration from 16.8% in the previous month and was significantly higher than expectations (SCB EIC projected 8.5%, while the Reuters Poll median stood at 9.4%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports expanded by as much as 10.6%MOM_SA, continuing from 7.3%MOM_SA in the preceding month. Export performance this month was supported by two key drivers: (1) the global upcycle in electronics products, driven by AI-related investment trends and rising demand for associated products. Exports of electronic products surged by 67%, accelerating from 52.8% in the previous month and marking 22 consecutive months of expansion; and (2) unwrought gold exports expanded strongly by 136.2%, partly reflecting record-high gold prices during the month, supported by continued gold purchases by central banks and heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid elevated geopolitical risks. 
Overall, exports of electronic products and gold contributed as much as (CTG) 11.4% and 6.3%, respectively, to the total export growth of 24.4% in January.

Figure 1: Thai Export Value by Product Category and Key Markets.

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the Ministry of Commerce.

Merchandise import value also recorded the highest expansion in four years, resulting in a substantial trade deficit for Thailand. The value of merchandise imports in January 2026 stood at USD 34,876.49 million, expanding by 29.4%YOY, compared with 18.8% in the previous month, and significantly exceeding expectations (SCB EIC projected 10.5%, while the Reuters Poll median was 10.3%).
The main imported categories were: (1) raw materials and intermediate goods, which expanded sharply by 50.3% (CTG = 20.5% out of total growth of 29.4%), particularly electrical and electronic equipment and components, as well as gold; and (2) capital goods, which grew by 29.5% (CTG = 7.7% out of 29.4%), especially electrical machinery and parts, and mechanical machinery and parts.
The customs basis trade balance in January 2026 recorded a deficit of USD -3,303.4 million, larger than market expectations (SCB EIC had projected USD -2,100 million, while the Reuters Poll median expected USD -2,030 million), marking the fourth consecutive month of trade deficit.

¹ In its ruling on Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump (a learning materials importer) together with Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. (a group of wine import businesses), the Supreme Court’s majority opinion held that the executive branch’s authority under the IEEPA in cases of economic emergency does not extend to the imposition of import tariffs. The authority to levy import tariffs, the Court emphasized, resides with the legislative branch.

² Under the assumption that products already subject to product-specific tariffs will be exempted.

SCB EIC has revised Thai exports’ projection to return to expansion of 1.6% in 2026 (previously -1.5%). The upward revision reflects continued support from the electronics upcycle, driven by strengthening global demand, which has bolstered exports across several Asian economies, including Thailand as a key producer in this sector. This is illustrated in Figure 5 (bottom right), where export values of developing Asian economies continue to expand robustly, particularly in electronic products such as Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Thailand.
In addition, the outlook for the global economy and trade has improved. SCB EIC has revised up its global GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.7% (from 2.5%). Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) have also upgraded their projections for global trade volume in 2026, reflecting a more favorable global economic outlook. Rapid advancements in AI development are also expected to serve as a key driver of global trade this year and help mitigate the impact of US tariffs.

Figure 5: The Outlook for the Global Economy and Trade Has Improved.

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the IMF and CEIC.

SCB EIC assesses that the Bhumjaithai Party’s victory in the 8 February 2026 election, securing 193 seats out of 500 (based on unofficial results from the Election Commission of Thailand, pending official certification), is likely to lead to the formation of a stable government, ensuring policy continuity in public administration and to some extent reducing Thailand’s economic risks arising from political uncertainty.

The new government is likely to be able to assume office by May, implying that the process for preparing the FY2027 Budget Bill will be delayed by only 1–2 months. This is broadly in line with SCB EIC’s pre-election assessment and therefore is not expected to materially affect SCB EIC’s 2026 baseline macroeconomic assumptions, under which the Thai economy is projected to expand by 1.5%.

While many of the Bhumjaithai Party’s economic policies respond to the country’s needs to address structural challenges—through its “10 Plus” policy package aimed at driving Thailand’s economy to return to growth of above 3%—translating these initiatives into tangible outcomes remains highly challenging amid tighter fiscal constraints. This will require the government to prioritize and strike an appropriate balance between short-term economic stimulus measures and longer-term structural reform policies.

SCB EIC assesses that, if the government can effectively advance a package of economic restructuring policies over the medium term, alongside strengthening confidence and appropriately managing the budget and implementing fiscal reforms to preserve fiscal space in times of crisis and reduce risks to the country’s sovereign credit rating, this would support economic expansion in the period ahead.

Nevertheless, risks associated with this election remain to be monitored, particularly the possibility that barcodes on ballot papers could enable identification of voters, which may contravene  election-related law and lead to a new election, as well as outcomes of political cases involving the former opposition party.

The United States Proceeds with Issuing a New Announcement to Impose a 25% Import Tariff on certain AI Chips

The United States has announced the imposition of a 25% import tariff on certain advanced chips and related products under Section 232, applicable to imports from all countries, including Thailand, effective January 15, 2026. The primary objective of this measure is to strengthen the domestic chip manufacturing supply chain and reduce reliance on imported chips, particularly advanced chips. The tariff increase will affect only specific categories of advanced chips, the measure targets high-end processors, namely high Total Processing Performance (TPP) and DRAM bandwidth. Such as Nvidia’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X chips, which are used for advanced processing in various high-technology industries. Nevertheless, in the initial phase, certain exemptions will apply, with a 0% tariff granted in some cases for advanced chips that do not meet the specified criteria, such as those intended for U.S. data centers, research and development (R&D), and startup companies, among others.

The increase in U.S. tariffs on advanced chips is expected to have an impact on the global semiconductor supply chain.

The increase in tariffs on advanced chips is expected to have a significant impact on the global semiconductor supply chain, as the United States currently remains highly dependent on overseas chip production. This comes amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, which has continued to intensify and may disrupt global supply. As a result, the United States has accelerated the use of additional tariff measures in parallel with the CHIPS Act to incentivize the reshoring of manufacturing capacity. SCB EIC assesses that this round of tariff increases will lead to higher global chip production costs and trigger a restructuring of the semiconductor supply chain, with increased investment shifting toward the U.S. market in response to tariff-related pressures.

Thailand may be affected by the increase in chip tariffs across multiple dimensions, including trade and investment.

1) Trade: Thailand’s exports of electronic products to the U.S. market are expected to be relatively limited in terms of direct impact, as most of the chips exported by Thailand (HS Code 8541) are used in general electronic products and continue to benefit from a 0% tariff rate. In addition, Thai products classified under the customs tariff codes specified by the United States (HS Codes 8471.50, 8471.80, and 8473.30) do not fall within the definition of “advanced chips” subject to the tariff. However, looking ahead, Thailand may face indirect impacts through exports of related components to other key trading partners, such as China, Taiwan, and Japan.

2) Investment: The increase in U.S. chip tariffs may affect investment in Thailand, although Thailand has remained an attractive destination for investment in the electronics industry and has continued to attract strong foreign investment in recent years. This is reflected in the latest data for the first nine months of 2025, during which foreign investors applied for investment promotion in the electrical and electronics (E&E) industry, accounting for approximately 21% of total investment applications, with a total investment value of 181,670 million baht. However, tariff measures aimed at reshoring manufacturing to the United States may introduce volatility into the global semiconductor supply chain, which could, in turn, affect investment trends across ASEAN, including investment in Thailand’s electronics industry. Moreover, higher tariffs on advanced chips may lead to a short-term surge in global AI chip prices, potentially affecting the data center industry that has been expanding its investments in Thailand, as operators may face higher AI infrastructure costs.

Relevant business operators need to promptly formulate strategies to address the emerging risks.

SCB EIC assesses that Thai operators in the electronics industry need to urgently adjust their business strategies to prepare for emerging risks, in order to enhance competitiveness and maintain their role within the global semiconductor supply chain. In the short term, relevant operators should develop risk assessment plans for products classified under customs tariff codes that are expected to be affected—both directly and indirectly—by the U.S. chip tariff increases, while also diversifying market exposure toward higher-potential Asian markets to reduce reliance on the United States, such as ASEAN, Japan, and Taiwan. In the long term, although Thailand’s upstream chip production remains relatively limited, the country retains a competitive advantage as a strong base for electronic product assembly. Accordingly, the public and private sectors should work jointly to accelerate the development of a highly skilled workforce aligned with labor market needs, alongside promoting investment in research and development to drive higher value-added upstream production. These efforts would contribute to building a more robust manufacturing supply chain capable of attracting greater foreign investment in the future.

As the chip war continues without a clear end and increasingly becomes a critical instrument of technological competition, accelerating adaptation to withstand these shocks is no longer a choice but a necessity to sustain the competitiveness of the electronics industry in the global market in the period ahead.

Consecutive construction crane collapse incidents have undermined public confidence in the safety of public infrastructure projects on a broad scale.  The series of construction crane collapses in January 2026 included: (1) the collapse of a crane at the Bangkok–Nakhon Ratchasima high-speed rail project site, which fell onto Special Express Train No. 21 operating on the Krung Thep Aphiwat–Ubon Ratchathani route; and (2) the collapse of a crane at the elevated roadway project on the Ekkachai–Ban Phaeo section (Motorway M82), which fell onto private vehicles. In addition, the collapse of the new Office of the Auditor General building under construction as a result of an earthquake in 2025, together with subsidence of completed and ongoing road construction in multiple areas occurring on a continuing basis, has collectively eroded confidence in the safety standards of public sector construction projects more broadly.

Addressing structural issues—through both strengthening regulatory oversight of construction contractors and adopting construction technologies—will help enhance safety in construction activities.

• Strengthening regulatory oversight of construction contractors. In the short term, it is necessary to accelerate the implementation of the contractor performance record system (including the deduction of accumulated points in cases of contractor violations). In addition, procurement processes for construction contractors must be made more stringent at every stage—from bidding and construction to project inspection and acceptance. This should be accompanied by the rigorous enforcement of penalties against contractors with construction deficiencies or delivery failures, ranging from financial penalties and disqualification from bidding, to downgrading of contractor classification and, ultimately, removal from the approved contractor list.
  
  In the long term, the construction sector across the entire supply chain must be upgraded through the establishment of an institution responsible for regulating and developing the construction industry. In this regard, the public sector may consider approaches to establishing a regulatory and development body for the construction sector, drawing on the example of Malaysia’s Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB), which plays a role in providing advice and policy recommendations to the government, as well as in regulation, standard setting, and upgrading the quality of construction contractors, extending to research and development to promote and facilitate the international competitiveness of the construction sector.

• The adoption of construction technologies will significantly reduce the risk of accidents, such as through the use of automated equipment and machinery to replace manual labor in hazardous tasks, and the deployment of sensor devices to provide alerts when equipment or machinery is operating abnormally or when maintenance and repair intervals are due. In this regard, the public sector plays a key role in accelerating the adoption of construction technologies through measures including the establishment of technology usage standards in public construction project procurement, support for research and development of construction technologies, reductions in corporate income tax, and the provision of financial support for contractors investing in relevant technologies and software.

Construction contractors should accelerate quality upgrading and exercise caution in adopting excessively low-price bidding strategies. Contractors should enhance quality by selecting reliable partners and subcontractors, strengthening construction processes to ensure safety, using construction materials and machinery that meet quality and standard requirements, and delivering projects on time and to the required quality. In addition, the adoption of technology will help increase productivity. At the same time, participation in construction project tenders should avoid overly aggressive price-based competition, in order to prevent situations in which contractors are pressured to preserve profit margins by cutting costs through reductions in construction quality.

The value of Thai merchandise exports in December 2025 stood at USD 28,835 million, expanding sharply by 16.8%YOY, accelerating from 7.1%YOY in the previous month and exceeding expectations (SCB EIC estimate: 10.5%; Reuters Poll median: 8.7%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports rebounded to a strong expansion of 6.9%MOM_SA, after contracting for two consecutive months.

Exports of electronic products and exports to the US remained the key supporting factors, while gold exports rebounded to strong growth once again.

1. Thai exports to the US continued to expand strongly by 54.3%YOY in December 2025, despite higher tariff barriers imposed on many products. Exports to the US accelerated further toward the end of 2025 compared with 37.9%YOY in November. Even when excluding electronic products—which remain exempt from US import tariffs—exports to the US still recorded robust growth of 21.7%YOY, reflecting strong demand for Thai products in the US market despite tariff pressures.
   
   Despite facing higher tariffs, 13 out of 15 major Thai export products to the US posted solid expansion, particularly electronic and electrical products. These included computers, equipment and parts; teleprinters, telephone sets and parts; electrical transformers and parts; machinery and parts; and air conditioners and parts, which expanded by 123%, 117.3%, 86.6%, 48.4%, and 46.5%, respectively. Exports to the US contributed 10.2 percentage points (CTG) to Thailand’s export growth this month, accounting for more than half of the total export expansion of 16.8%.
   
   
2. Exports of electronic products continued to expand strongly, supported by shipments to the US market, the global electronics upcycle, and the expansion of investment in the electronics industry and data centers worldwide. Electronic exports recorded a robust growth of 52.8%YOY, accelerating from 46.2%YOY and 38.8%YOY in November and October, respectively, and extending the expansion streak to 21 consecutive months.
   
   By market, 13 out of the top 15 destinations for Thai electronic exports posted growth, with 10 markets expanding by more than 15%YOY. Exports to the US, Mexico, and India surged by 114.2%, 122.8%, and 152.6%, respectively. Overall, exports of electronic products contributed 10.1 percentage points (CTG) to Thailand’s export growth this month, accounting for more than half of the total export expansion of 16.8%.
   
   
3. Unwrought Gold returned as a key export product. Exports of unwrought gold rebounded sharply, expanding by 163.6%YOY, following consecutive contractions of -53.3%YOY and -76.9%YOY in November and October, respectively. This rebound was partly attributable to the rise in gold prices in December. Exports of unwrought gold contributed 2.7 percentage points (CTG) to Thailand’s total export growth this month, out of the overall 16.8% expansion.

Imports continued to accelerate, resulting in Thailand recording a trade deficit for three consecutive months.

The value of Thai merchandise imports in December 2025 stood at USD 29,280.4 million, expanding sharply by 18.8%YOY, accelerating from 17.6%YOY and 16.3%YOY in November and October, respectively, and exceeding expectations (SCB EIC estimate: 12%; Reuters Poll median: 15.8%). Overall, total import value for 2025 expanded strongly by 12.9%, matching the full-year export growth rate.

In December, imports of vehicles and logistics equipment, capital goods, and consumer goods accelerated markedly by 39.3%, 31.7%, and 27.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, imports of raw and intermediate materials (including gold) as well as arms and ammunition, although moderating somewhat, continued to expand at double-digit rates of 19.9% and 10.2%, respectively. Fuel products imports were the only category to record a sharp contraction of -17.1%, close to -16.7% in the previous month, marking four consecutive months of decline (Figure 3).

• Imports of capital goods and raw materials and intermediate goods were largely related to electronics products. Imports of electronic integrated circuits, semi-conductor devices, transistors and diodes, and printed circuits expanded sharply by 56.3%, 86.3%, and 89.3%, respectively, accounting for 32.7% of total imports of raw materials and intermediate goods this month. Meanwhile, capital goods imports were dominated by electrical machinery and parts and machinery and parts, which expanded by 60.6% and 22.8%, respectively, representing 61% of total capital goods imports in December. Imports from China accounted for a high share in both categories, comprising 48.8% of capital goods imports and 28.7% of raw materials and intermediate goods imports this month.
  
  
• Consumer goods imports expanded strongly across 14 out of 15 major categories, led by electrical appliances, miscellaneous manufactured goods, and household goods and furnishings, which grew by 52.3%, 33.6%, and 21.8%, respectively. These categories together accounted for 38.1% of total consumer goods imports in December. Notably, more than half of consumer goods imports (54%) were sourced from China.
  
  

The trade balance (customs basis) in December 2025 recorded a deficit of USD -352 million, narrowing significantly from the previous month’s deficit of USD -2,726.9 million. The outturn was close to SCB EIC’s estimate of a USD -200 million deficit, while the Reuters Poll median had expected a much larger trade deficit of USD -1,800 million.

Overall, in 2025, Thai export value expanded strongly by 12.9%, despite facing challenges from US import tariffs. However, import value also rose sharply by 12.9%, suggesting that the value added from exports to the Thai economy may be limited.

Overall, Thailand’s total export value in 2025 amounted to USD 339,635 million, expanding by 12.9%, the highest growth in four years. This represented more than double the export growth recorded in 2024, which stood at 5.4% (customs basis), and exceeded the forecasts by SCB EIC and the Ministry of Commerce, which had projected growth of 10.7% and 10.7%–11.4%, respectively. The main supporting factors were as follows (Figure 4).

1. The reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States were significantly less severe than initially announced.
   
   - The US imposed reciprocal tariffs at levels lower than those announced on Liberation Day (2 April). The weighted-average additional tariffs imposed by the US on imports from the rest of the world declined from 22.7%, as previously estimated by the WTO in May, to 18.2% in November (Figure 6, left). For Thailand, the US reduced import tariffs by nearly half—from 36% to 19%—bringing them broadly in line with regional competitors. As a result, Thailand did not lose significant competitiveness in the US market, alleviating earlier concerns that Thai exports might face higher tariff barriers than those of regional peers such as Malaysia and Vietnam.
   
   - The U.S. delayed the enforcement of the reciprocal tariffs from April to August, allowing Thailand to continue accelerating exports to the US for several additional months. As a result, exports to the US for the full year expanded sharply by 32%, accelerating significantly from 13.6% growth in 2024. Exports to the US contributed 5.8 percentage points (CTG) to Thailand’s total export growth of 12.9% in 2025.
   
   - The US also continued to exempt many of Thailand’s key export products from tariff measures, particularly goods that are essential to the US economy or that the US cannot produce, or produces only in limited quantities. These include certain electronic products, LED bulbs, graphite, some pharmaceutical components, and selected agricultural products. As a result, countries that rely heavily on exporting these products to the US—such as Thailand, Taiwan, and Vietnam—were still able to record strong export growth. In Thailand’s case, electronics exports to the US expanded by 52.5% in 2025, contributing over 20% (CTG) of the total growth in Thailand’s exports to the US for the year, which expanded by 32%.
   
   
2. The upcycle in electronic products, which are Thailand’s key export category (accounting for 21.5% of total Thai export value in 2025, up from 17.6% in 2024), was supported by strong demand for AI-related technology products and the continued expansion of global investment in the electronics industry and data centers. In addition, exports of these products were further boosted by the front-loading to the US, as some electronic products remained exempt from additional tariff measures. As a result, Thailand’s electronic export value expanded by more than 38.3% in 2025, contributing 6.7 percentage points (CTG) to Thailand’s overall export growth of 12.9%.
   
   
3. Exports of unwrought gold expanded by more than 48.5%, supported by the sharp increase in gold prices, in line with stronger global demand for gold as a hedge against heightened global risks. Exports of unwrought gold contributed 1.4 percentage points (CTG) to Thailand’s total export growth of 12.9%. Including the special factor of gold exports to India in Q1/2025, Thailand’s gold exports as a whole accounted for 2.2 percentage points (CTG) of the overall export growth of 12.9% in 2025.
   
   
4. China–US tensions eased significantly, as the US reduced import tariffs on Chinese goods to just 20%, down from over 100% in early 2025. This shift led to a more favorable outlook for the global economy and global trade volumes. For example, the WTO had projected in April that global trade volume in 2025 would contract by -0.2%, but revised its outlook in October to an expansion of 2.4%. As a result, Thai exports to non-US markets expanded well, including China, the EU, and ASEAN-5, which grew by 12.6%, 8.5%, and 6.9%, respectively.

Although Thailand’s export value expanded strongly in 2025, total import value also accelerated markedly. Overall imports amounted to USD 344,943 million, rising by 12.9%, the highest growth in four years, in line with export growth. The main drivers were raw materials and intermediate goods and capital goods, which expanded by 17.9% and 20.3%, respectively. Together, these two categories contributed 12.5 percentage points (CTG) to total import growth of 12.9% in 2025 (Figure 5).

• Imports of raw materials and intermediate goods (CTG = 7.2%) were driven mainly by gold and electronic components, in line with the continued expansion of Thailand’s exports of electronic products and gold. However, due to Thailand’s structural limitations in producing upstream and midstream electronic products, the country remains highly dependent on imports of key components—particularly printed circuit boards, which expanded by more than 41.3%—from major producers, especially China and Taiwan, to support rising export-oriented production. Gold imports also expanded strongly by over 36%, largely reflecting imports to offset export volumes, as well as a possible increase in domestic gold accumulation demand.
  
  
• Capital goods imports (CTG: 5.3%) were driven mainly by imports of electrical machinery and parts, machinery and parts, and computers, equipment and parts, which expanded by more than 47.1%, 16.2%, and 4.1%, respectively. This is consistent with data showing continued expansion in investment in the electronics industry and data centers in Thailand, which has been a key factor supporting the particularly strong growth of capital goods imports in 2025.
  
  
• Thailand’s imports were concentrated mainly in China and Taiwan, with import values from China and Taiwan expanding sharply by 33.5% and 23.5%, respectively, in 2025. Together, imports from these two economies contributed 10.4 percentage points (CTG)—8.8% from China and 1.6% from Taiwan—to Thailand’s total import growth of 12.9% in 2025. In particular, the strong increase in imports from China may partly reflect excess production capacity following trade restrictions imposed by other countries, especially the US, combined with weak domestic economic conditions in China. As a result, Chinese producers have increasingly shifted exports toward non-US markets, particularly Southeast Asia.
  
  

The Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) for Thailand, as shown in Figure 6 (right), did not expand in line with the strong export trend. This suggests that Thailand’s exports in 2025 generated relatively limited value added for the domestic economy. Meanwhile, Thailand’s trade balance (customs basis) in 2025 recorded a large deficit of USD -5,307.9 million, marking the highest deficit in three years.

The outlook for Thai exports in 2026 (as of December 2025) points to a significant slowdown to -1.5%, in line with global trade trends and a high base effect. Nevertheless, there remain several upside factors that could support exports.

SCB EIC assesses that Thai exports will weaken in 2026. Global economic growth and global trade volume in 2026 are expected to slow, as the impact of US tariff measures under the Trump administration becomes clearer and fully impacted. In addition, several temporary supporting factors in 2025 are expected to fade, including the front-loading of production and exports ahead of trade war impacts, the special factor of gold exports to India, the appreciation of the baht, which could undermine the competitiveness of Thai products, as well as the high base effect following the strong 12.9% expansion in 2025.

Nevertheless, the outlook for global trade, digital investment trends, and gold demand has improved, despite an overall deceleration. As a result, the previously assessed Thai export growth of -1.5% in 2026 (as of December 2025) still carries several upside factors.

1. Global trade volume in 2026. International organizations (as of January 2026), such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), project that global trade volume will expand by 2.6% in 2026. Although this represents a slowdown from 4.1% growth in 2025, it is higher than the previous projection of 2.3% made in October 2025.
   
   
2. Digital investment trends, particularly in AI, are expected to remain strong in 2026, although moderating somewhat from 2025. This will continue to support strong demand for advanced electronic products, such as semiconductors and integrated circuits. High-frequency data show that South Korea exports during the first 20 days of January 2026 expanded by 14.9%YOY, with exports of semiconductors and wireless communication equipment surging by 70.2% and 48%, respectively.
   
   
3. Demand for gold accumulation as a safe-haven asset remains elevated, in line with the sharp rise in geopolitical risks in the Trump 2.0 era. In addition, the World Gold Council has indicated that central banks remain net buyers of gold to build up international reserves. Moreover, several major global investment research institutions expect gold prices to continue rising this year. Historical evidence suggests that Thailand’s gold exports tend to move in line with global gold prices, implying continued support for Thai gold exports.

SCB EIC is closely monitoring and reassessing economic conditions and Thailand’s export outlook, and will release an updated forecast in February. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce projects that Thai export value this year will grow in a range of -3.1% to +1.1%.

Figure 1: Thai Export Value by Product Category and Key Markets.

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the Ministry of Commerce.

Figure 2: Computers and equipment, gold, computer components, and pickup trucks supported exports in December 2025, while rice continued to contract.

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the Ministry of Commerce.

Figure 3: Thai Import Value by Product Category and Key Markets.

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the Ministry of Commerce. 

Figure 4: In 2025, electronics, gold, and electrical appliances were the main export products, while the US market accounted for nearly half of Thailand’s overall export growth for the year.

Note: Other industrial products refer to industrial products excluding electronic products, electrical appliances, and gold + special gold exports.
Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the Ministry of Commerce.

Figure 5: Raw and intermediate materials and capital goods were the main import products in 2025, with most imports sourced from China and Taiwan.

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the Ministry of Commerce.

Figure 6: The weighted average US import tariff rate declined from early 2025, supporting stronger-than-expected global and Thai trade growth, while Thailand’s manufacturing sector may derive limited value added from the surge in exports.

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the Ministry of Commerce, the Office of Industrial Economics, and the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The value of Thai merchandise exports in November 2025 stood at USD 27,445.6 million, expanding by 7.1%YOY, accelerating from 5.7%YOY in the previous month and broadly in line with SCB EIC’s forecast of 7% (while the Reuters Poll median stood at 8.3%). Although exports continued to expand, clearer signs of a slowdown have begun to emerge, as reflected in seasonally adjusted exports contracting by -2.3%MOM_SA, following a -1.2%MOM_SA decline in the previous month. Nonetheless, cumulative export value over the first 11 months of the year still recorded a strong expansion of 12.6% (Figures 1 and 2).

 

Exports of electronic products and shipments to the US remained the key growth drivers, while gold became a major drag for the second consecutive month.

 

1) Thai exports to the US continued to expand strongly in November, despite several products already being subject to tariff barriers.

Exports to the US surged by as high as 37.9%YOY, accelerating from 32.9%YOY in the previous month, even amid existing tariff measures. Among Thailand’s top 15 export products to the US, 11 items recorded solid growth, led by electronic products such as computers, equipment, and parts, which expanded sharply by 120%YOY.

2) Exports of electronic products continued to expand strongly, supported by front-loading electronic products shipment to the US market —which remain exempt from reciprocal tariffs—the ongoing upcycle in the electronics sector, and a favorable outlook for global investment in the electronics industry and data centers. Key products showing robust growth included computers, equipment, and parts, which expanded by 59.9%YOY, and electronic integrated circuits, which grew by 17.1%YOY, among others.

3) Gold became a major drag for the second consecutive month, after expanding strongly throughout the first nine months of the year. Exports of unwrought gold contracted sharply by -51.2%YOY, following a -76.9%YOY decline in the previous month, after having recorded exceptionally strong growth of 212.6%YOY and 144.0%YOY in September and August, respectively. This contraction is assessed to be partly driven by a high base effect, as gold exports in October and November 2024 had surged by 169.3%YOY and 174.7%YOY, respectively, amid heightened geopolitical tensions. In addition, gold price growth slowed in November, following a rapid increase in the preceding period, further weighing on gold export performance.

 

The value of merchandise imports continued to accelerate, particularly for electronic integrated circuits, resulting in Thailand recording consecutive trade deficits.

The value of Thai merchandise imports in November stood at USD 30,172.5 million, expanding sharply by 17.6%YOY, accelerating from 16.3%YOY and 17.2%YOY in October and September, respectively, and exceeding expectations (SCB EIC estimate: 10.1%; Reuters Poll median: 14%). As a result, cumulative import value over the first 11 months of the year expanded strongly by 12.4%.

By product category, imports of arms and ammunition surged by 69.7%YOY, while capital goods expanded by 18.7%YOY, vehicles and logistics equipment by 10.0%YOY, and consumer goods by 8.2%YOY. In contrast, fuel products imports were the only category to contract sharply, declining by around -16.7%YOY, following a -9.8%YOY contraction in the previous month (Figure 3).

The strong import expansion was driven mainly by a sharp increase in electronic integrated circuits imports, which surged by 195.1%YOY, accelerating from 33.3%YOY in the previous month. In particular, imports from Taiwan expanded significantly by as high as 605.1%YOY, accounting for 82.9% of total electronic integrated circuits imports in November.

The customs basis trade balance recorded a large and persistent deficit of USD -2,726.9 million this month, significantly wider than expectations (SCB EIC projected a deficit of USD -800 million, while the Reuters Poll median stood at USD -1,120 million). This was driven by the continued sharp acceleration in imports, particularly electronic integrated circuits from Taiwan. As a result, the cumulative trade balance over the first 11 months of 2025 registered a deficit of USD -4,956 million.

 

SCB EIC assesses that Thai exports in 2026 could potentially reverse into contraction amid multiple downside pressures.

The historically strong expansion in export value over the first 11 months of this year was supported by several factors:

(1) The upcycle in electronic products has led to stronger global demand for Thailand’s major export products.

(2) The intensity of US import tariff policies being lower than initially announced (for example, Thailand’s rate was reduced from 36% to 19%), alongside postponements in tariff collection across several product groups—such as certain electronic products—thereby limiting the impact of import tariffs on the global economy and trade, which have continued to expand at a solid pace.

(3) Strong gold exports, driven by higher gold prices and elevated demand amid heightened uncertainty, including special gold exports to India in Q1; and

(4) A low base effect in H1/2024.

 

Nonetheless, the strong expansion in export value was accompanied by an equally rapid acceleration in imports—particularly electronics-related products—suggesting that the net positive impact on the overall economy may be relatively limited.

 

Although exports expanded solidly in 2025, SCB EIC assesses that Thai exports in 2026 are likely to contract by -1.5% (balance of payments basis).

The key factors include: (1) a slowdown in global economic growth and global trade volumes in 2026, as the impact of US tariff measures under the Trump administration becomes more pronounced and fully materializes; (2) the fading of key supporting factors seen in 2025, such as front-loading of production and shipments to the US and special gold exports to India; (3) a high base effect in 2025, particularly in H1; (4) intensifying competition in global markets, as countries increasingly seek to diversify risks away from the US market; and (5) the impact of a stronger Thai baht, which erodes Thailand’s relative competitiveness—especially for export products that rely primarily on domestic inputs and therefore lack a natural hedge.

The Thai baht has appreciated by more than 9% since the beginning of 2025, ranking among the strongest in the region, second only to Myanmar, although it is expected to start depreciating from Q2/2026 onward. This assessment is broadly consistent with the Ministry of Commerce’s projection, which ranges from -3.3% to 1.1% (customs basis).

 

In addition, looking ahead, Thai exports may face further downside risks that warrant close monitoring, including:

1) Additional import tariffs imposed by the US, such as sectoral specific tariffs—particularly on electronic products—and transshipment tariffs, both of which carry tariff rates higher than the 19% currently faced by Thailand.

2) A deterioration in China–US relations, particularly the risk of renewed trade tensions, poses downside risks to the global economy and global trade.

3) High uncertainty surrounding Thailand–US trade negotiations, while tensions related to the Thailand–Cambodia conflict could delay negotiations with the US or weaken Thailand’s bargaining position; and

4) Increasing inflows of Chinese and US products into global markets (Twin Influx), which could undermine the competitiveness of Thai products both domestically and internationally.


Figure 1: Thai Export Value by Product Category and Key Markets.

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the Ministry of Commerce.

 

Figure 2: Electronic products remained a key growth driver despite some moderation, while gold exports continued to contract sharply.

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the Ministry of Commerce.

 

 
Figure 3: Thai Import Value by Product Category and Key Markets.



Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the Ministry of Commerce.

The value of Thai merchandise exports in October 2025 stood at USD 28,835 million, with growth slowing to 5.7%YOY from 19.0%YOY in the previous month and falling below expectations (SCB EIC estimated 9%). Seasonally adjusted figures showed a contraction of -1.9%MOM_SA, a sharp decline from 6.6%MOM_SA in September. Overall, export value during the first ten months of the year expanded strongly by 13.0% (Figure 1 and Figure 2).


Electronics exports and shipments to the US remained the key supporting factors, while gold emerged as the main drag on overall export performance.


1) Thai exports to the US continued to expand strongly in October, even though many products have already been subjected to tariff measures. Exports to the US this month rose by 29.1%, though slightly moderating from 35.3% in the previous month. Excluding electronic products that remain exempt from US import tariffs, exports to the US still expanded at a high rate of 18.7%, reflecting strong US demand for Thai goods despite tariff barriers.

Among Thailand’s top 15 export products to the US, 11 recorded solid growth, particularly electronics and electrical appliances. Key items—such as computers, equipment and parts; machinery and mechanical appliances and parts; and electrical transformers and parts—expanded by 110.2%, 45.9%, and 22.2%, respectively.

Exports to the US contributed significantly to Thailand’s export performance in October, raising overall export growth by 6%YOY (CTG), which exceeded total export growth of 5.7%.

2) Exports of electronic products continued to expand at a high rate, supported by accelerated shipments to the US, which still benefits from exemption from import tariffs, the ongoing upcycle in the global electronics sector, and the rising trend of investment in the electronics and data center industries worldwide. Electronic exports grew by 38.8%, moderating slightly from 42.6% in the previous month.

By examining export markets, 12 out of the top 15 destinations for Thai electronic exports continued to expand, while 10 out of these 15 markets recorded growth above 30%. Notable markets included the US, China, Singapore, Mexico, and Malaysia, which expanded strongly by 52.8%, 36.4%, 87%, 40%, and 86.4%, respectively.

Electronic product exports contributed significantly to Thailand’s overall export expansion in October, raising total export growth by 6.9%YOY (CTG), exceeding the headline export growth of 5.7%.

3) Gold became the main drag on export performance. Exports of unwrought gold contracted sharply by -76.9%, reversing from exceptionally high growth of 212.6% and 144% in September and August, respectively. Major export markets—Switzerland, Singapore, and Cambodia—experienced steep declines of -92.4%, -96.3%, and -82%, respectively, partly reflecting the drop in global gold prices following reduced global uncertainty after the temporary trade agreement between China and the US.

Gold was the key product weighing down exports this month, contributing (CTG) -6.3%, compared with total export growth of 5.7%. This stands in sharp contrast to the first nine months of the year, during which gold helped raise Thailand’s export growth by over 2.5% out of the total export expansion of 13.9%.


Imports accelerated sharply, particularly in raw materials and intermediate goods such as gold, leading Thailand to record its highest trade deficit in nearly three years.


The value of merchandise imports in October stood at USD 32,272.5 million, expanding by 16.3%, following growth of 17.2% in the previous month, and considerably exceeding earlier expectations (SCB EIC estimated 10.1%). Overall, imports during the first ten months of the year expanded strongly by 12.4%. This month, imports of raw and intermediate materials (including gold), as well as arms and ammunition, accelerated sharply by 43.5% and 33.4%, respectively—more than double the growth rates of 18.9% and 15.1% recorded in September. In contrast, imports of capital goods, consumer goods, and vehicles and logistics equipment slowed markedly to 3.1%, -2.7%, and -1.7%, respectively (compared with strong growth of 23.7%, 16.6%, and 31.8% in the previous month). Fuel products imports were the only category that remain contracted—around -10%—compared with a mild contraction of -0.8% in the prior month (Figure 3).

Imports of raw and intermediate materials continued to expand at a high rate, partly because Thailand resumed importing gold at a very elevated level. Excluding gold, import growth stood at only 4.3%. In October, gold imports surged by as much as 315.3%, rebounding sharply from a -44.3% contraction in the previous month.

The main sources of Thailand’s gold imports were Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, China, Australia, Singapore, and Hong Kong, which recorded exceptionally high growth rates of 745.7%, 516.1%, 1,436.9%, 327.8%, 779.3%, and 7.1%, respectively—together accounting for around 93% of total gold import value this month. Part of the sharp increase may be attributed to declining global gold prices.

The trade balance (customs basis) returned to a large deficit this month, standing at USD -3,436.9 million — the highest in 31 months and significantly worse than expected (SCB EIC estimated a deficit of USD -800 million). This outcome reflected a clear slowdown in exports, while imports continued to accelerate sharply. As a result, the cumulative trade balance for the first ten months of 2025 recorded a deficit of USD -3,866.2 million.


SCB EIC revised up Thai export growth forecast in 2025 to 10.7%, in line with the stronger-than-expected performance during the first nine months. For 2026, Thailand’s export outlook is projected to contract by -1.5%.
 

SCB EIC revised up Thailand’s export growth in 2025 to 10.7%, from the previous projection of 5.3% (balance of payments basis, outlook as of November 2025). This adjustment was made despite October export figures coming in considerably below expectations, as exports in Q3 continued to perform well during the initial phase of the US tariff hikes. For the remaining two months of the year, export growth is expected to be modest due to a high base effect. The upward revision of this year’s export forecast is driven by four key factors:

1) The global economy and global trade in 2025 expanded more strongly than previously expected at the beginning of the year, due largely to a considerable easing of trade war tensions, especially between China and the US. The actual US tariff rates implemented were significantly lower than the initially announced levels, following negotiations that resulted in an agreement acceptable to the US. In addition, front-loading of exports prior to the US tariff implementation in early August supported export momentum.

As a result, Thailand’s exports to major trading partners expanded well, particularly to China, ASEAN-5, and the European Union, which grew by 15.5%, 6.3%, and 7.9%, respectively.

2) The US postponed the start of its reciprocal tariff measures from 2 April to 8 August, enabling Thailand to accelerate exports to the US to a significant extent. As a result, Thai exports during the first seven months of the year expanded by as high as 14.4%.

3) Thailand successfully negotiated with the US to reduce reciprocal tariff rates by nearly half, from 36% to 19%, bringing the rate closer to that faced by regional competitors. This allowed Thai export products to maintain their competitiveness in the US market.

4) Exports of electronic products and gold expanded very strongly by 35.6% and 104.8%, respectively, during the first nine months of the year. These product groups contributed (CTG) 8.7% to Thailand’s export growth over the same period—more than half of the total export growth rate of 13.9% (CTG).
 

The Ministry of Commerce also revised its outlook significantly upward, estimating that Thailand’s export value this year will expand by 10.7%–11.4%.

 

However, SCB EIC assesses that Thailand’s export value in 2026 is likely to return to contraction at -1.5%, mainly due to the following factors:

1. The global economy and global trade volume in 2026 are expected to slow significantly, as the full impact of US tariff measures under the Trump administration will begin to materialize more clearly and comprehensively after the enforcement delay this year. The World Trade Organization (WTO) recently revised down its forecast for global trade volume in 2026 to only 0.5% (a sharp slowdown from 2.4% in 2025). Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for global trade in goods and services to 2.3% in 2026 (down from 3.6% in 2025).

2. The high base effect, particularly during the first seven months of 2025 when exports expanded by as much as 14.4%.

3. Chinese products are expected to become more competitive in the US market under the China–US trade agreement reached on 30 October, whereby the US agreed to reduce import tariffs on Chinese goods to 20% (from the previous 30%) for a period of one year. This tariff rate is now much closer to that applied to Thai products, thereby narrowing Thailand’s relative competitiveness.


In addition, Thailand’s exports will continue to face several heightened risks in 2026, including (1) additional US import tariffs, particularly product-specific tariffs and the 40% transshipment tariff, and (2) geopolitical uncertainties, should tensions between the US and China intensify once again.



Figure 1: Thai Export Value by Product Category and Key Markets.

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the Ministry of Commerce.



Figure 2: Computers and Equipment, Pickup Trucks, and Automobiles and Parts Supported Exports in October, While Gold Exports Began to Contract Sharply.



Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the Ministry of Commerce.


Figure 3: Thai Import Value by Product Category and Key Markets.

Source: SCB EIC analysis based on data from the Ministry of Commerce.

The MPC voted 5 to 2 to maintain the policy rate at 1.50%, while two members voted to lower the rate to 1.25%.

· The majority deemed the current monetary policy stance to be accommodative, emphasizing the importance of timing and policy effectiveness amid limited policy space.

· The minority judged that monetary policy could be further eased to support economic recovery and alleviate liquidity problems and debt burdens among vulnerable groups.


The Thai economy should slow in the second half of 2025, as the export sector begins to feel the impact of Trump’s tariffs.

· The economy in Q3 is expected to slow, weighed down by the export sector, which has begun to be affected by U.S. tariff measures, while industrial production has also weakened due to temporary factors. The MPC projects that Thai GDP growth in the second half of 2025 will be below 2%YoY.

· The MPC revised up its export growth forecast for this year significantly to 10%YoY (from 4.0%YoY in the June meeting), in line with actual data. However, the positive impact on the overall economy is limited, as the import growth forecast was also raised substantially to 10.2%YoY (from 5.3%YoY in the June meeting).

· The MPC assessed that the tourism sector and domestic demand have already slowed. Accordingly, it revised down its projection for foreign tourist arrivals in 2025 from 35 million in the June meeting to 33 million (Figure 1) and lowered its forecast for domestic demand growth from 2.1%YoY to 1.7%YoY. Nevertheless, the MPC expects both drivers to gradually improve going forward and has already incorporated the government’s new economic stimulus measures, scheduled for implementation in Q4, into this economic projection.

· The overall outlook for the Thai economy remains broadly unchanged from the June meeting. The MPC slightly revised down its GDP growth projections from 2.3%YoY and 1.7%YoY in the June meeting to 2.2%YoY and 1.6%YoY in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

 



The MPC revised down its inflation forecast for this year to 0% and expects inflation to remain below the target range throughout 2026. The committee will closely monitor the risk of deflation.

· The MPC significantly revised down its headline inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting inflation to decline to 0.0% and 0.5%, respectively. This marks a downward revision from the June meeting’s projections of 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively, reflecting supply-side factors such as lower energy and raw food prices (Figure 2).

· The MPC expects headline inflation to remain below the target range throughout next year while expects the headline inflation to return to the lower bound of the target range at 1% in early 2027, in line with global crude oil prices, which are projected to stabilize after a period of continuous decline.

· The MPC affirmed that Thailand has not yet entered a deflationary state but will monitor the risk more closely. The committee judges that Thailand is not in a deflationary state because (1) core inflation has not declined sharply or rapidly, with projections of 0.9% for both 2025 and 2026; (2) majority of the product prices have not fallen; and (3) long-term inflation expectations remain within the target range.

 


 

Overall financial conditions remain tight, while financial conditions for SMEs continue to be a concern.

· Thailand’s overall financial conditions remain tight. Credits continue to contract slightly, partly due to weaker credit demand and debt repayments by large corporates, while overall credit quality has not deteriorated significantly.

· SMEs continue to face tight financial conditions, as reflected by both domestic and external indicators. Domestically, SME loans have contracted, and credit quality has deteriorated, evidenced by a continued rise in the NPL ratio. Externally, export-oriented SMEs have been affected by the appreciation of the baht, which has reduced their revenue in baht terms. The impact is particularly severe among SME exporters, as (1) over 80% of them do not hedge against exchange rate risks, and (2) SME exporters already operate with relatively low profit margins.

· The MPC affirmed that monetary policy needs to be “accommodative,” but emphasized the importance of timing and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission amid limited policy space and heightened future uncertainties.

On 29 September 2025, the government under Prime Minister Anutin announced a new policy to accelerate Thailand’s Net Zero target by 15 years, moving the timeline forward from 2065 to 2050. In the government’s policy statement delivered to the National Assembly, the Prime Minister declared the commitment to transition Thailand towards a low-carbon society, setting a revised target for the country to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, instead of the previous goal of 2065.

This policy marks a major shift in Thailand’s climate agenda since the nation first committed to a Net Zero target before the international community in 2021. The acceleration of the Net Zero timeline by 15 years represents a significant turning point that will reshape the future of Thai industry. The government has sent a clear signal that: “Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is not an option, but the pathway for the survival of the Thai economy in the future world.”

 
Advancing the Net Zero target to 2050 represents a critical step in enabling Thai industries to transition toward a low-carbon economy in line with global trends. Retaining the original 2065 target would have resulted in Thailand achieving Net Zero 15 years later than 111 other countries, thereby posing the risk of exclusion from future global trade networks. This is because countries and companies with a Net Zero 2050 target are increasingly inclined to purchase goods and services only from nations and businesses that have set a Net Zero timeline no later than their own.

Accordingly, the announcement of the new 2050 target—consistent with recommendations from a 2024 study by SCB EIC—serves as a key mechanism to accelerate private sector adaptation in alignment with international standards. The transition to a low-carbon economy will require sustained and substantive government support throughout the next 25 years.

While the new target represents a significant advancement for Thailand, in the global context it merely signifies a “return to international standards,” comparable to countries such as Japan, the European Union, and Vietnam, which have already announced Net Zero 2050 commitments. This new target therefore presents both a challenge and a critical imperative for Thai enterprises to accelerate their adaptation efforts.

 
The Net Zero 2050 target will create both opportunities for certain industries to expand and pressure for others to accelerate their transition in response to increasing domestic challenges. Under the Net Zero 2050 policy, industries that contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions are expected to experience growth, driven by rising demand for relevant goods and services. These include:

1. Industries within the renewable and clean energy supply chain

2. Industries related to enhancing energy efficiency

3. Industries within the electric vehicle supply chain

4. Waste management industries

5. Bio-based materials industries

6. Low-carbon fuel industries

7. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology industries

Conversely, industries with high greenhouse gas emissions will face greater domestic pressure. Previously, Thai businesses were already under pressure from international trading partners that had set Net Zero targets 15 years ahead of Thailand. The government’s announcement of the Net Zero 2050 target will intensify such pressures domestically through the phased introduction of new measures, such as carbon taxation and the enforcement of an emissions trading system (ETS) .

These measures will accelerate the need for high-emission industries—such as oil and gas, fossil-fuel power generation, steel, cement, chemicals, and internal combustion engine automobiles—to adapt within a shortened timeframe of 15 years if they are to sustain growth in a low-carbon economy. Encouragingly, several companies in Thailand have already set Net Zero 2050 targets.

 
Entrepreneurs must begin to seriously reduce greenhouse gas emissions within their business operations while also seeking new business opportunities arising from the Net Zero 2050 target. Pressure from both domestic and international sources has made greenhouse gas reduction an unavoidable imperative for businesses seeking long-term sustainable growth. Entrepreneurs can initiate this process through five key steps:   

1. Assess the organization’s greenhouse gas emissions

2. Set emission reduction targets in line with international standards

3. Identify appropriate technologies and strategies for emission reduction, considering both cost and feasibility

4. Implement measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

5. Monitor and report progress transparently to build stakeholder confidence

In addition, entrepreneurs should leverage this opportunity to expand into industries with strong potential in a low-carbon economy, such as participating in the supply chain of clean energy, electric vehicles, or bio-based materials. They should also utilize green finance or transition finance to develop new products and services, such as low-carbon agricultural products or sustainability-focused hotel businesses.

 
At the same time, the government must accelerate the introduction of concrete support measures to encourage businesses and households to adopt low-carbon practices. Such measures should encompass two key areas:

1. Incentive measures for those with capacity but lacking motivation to transition—for example, increasing targets for renewable energy procurement, reducing electricity purchases from fossil fuels, and providing tax credits for industries utilizing clean energy.

2. Support measures for vulnerable groups lacking resources—such as providing education and awareness, offering low-interest loans for small businesses, or granting financial assistance to low-income households for energy-efficient home improvements.

The design of policies that address this diversity of needs will be a critical factor in driving the nation towards achieving Net Zero in a meaningful and sustainable manner.

 
The Net Zero 2050 policy is not solely an environmental issue but a matter of the survival of Thai industries on the global stage. Businesses that adapt in a timely manner will gain a competitive advantage, while those that lag behind may be left at a disadvantage. Therefore, the business sector must take action now and integrate carbon reduction as a core component of their primary strategies.

• Transshipment Tariff: A 40% tariff applied to products with low levels of local content or regional value content. However, the details of this tariff remain unclear. SCB EIC’s preliminary assessment indicates that currently, Thai export industries with a high proportion of import content account for around 40% of Thailand’s total export value to the US.
  
  
• Specific Tariff (Product-Specific Tariff): For example, steel and aluminum, with some steel products subject to tariffs of 25%–50%; copper at 50%; and automobiles and parts at 25%. SCB EIC’s assessment of Thailand’s top 16 export products to the US shows that 3 of the 16 items—namely vehicle tires, automobiles and parts, and iron and steel products—fall into this category, accounting for approximately 12% of Thailand’s total export value to the US.
  
  
• Special Specific Tariff under Section 232: A variable tariff will be applied by charging a 50% steel tariff based on the value of the steel content used in a product’s production, meaning the higher the steel content, the higher the tariff the product will face. For example, Air conditioners, which typically have around 50% of their production value in steel, would be subject to a 25% tariff under this measure, instead of the 19% reciprocal tariffs. SCB EIC’s assessment of Thailand’s top 16 export products to the US shows that 3 of the 16 items—namely refrigerators and parts, air conditioners and parts, and other electrical appliances and parts—fall into this category, accounting for approximately 7% of Thailand’s total export value to the US.
  
  
• Reciprocal Tariff: A 19% tariff under the trade agreement between Thailand and the United States in August. SCB EIC’s assessment of Thailand’s top 16 export products to the US shows that 6 of the 16 items fall into this category, accounting for approximately 16% of Thailand’s total export value to the US.
  

The MPC Unanimously Votes to Cut the Policy Rate by 0.25% to 1.50%, in Line with SCB EIC’s Expectations. The latest policy rate cut reflects the MPC’s assessment that there remains room for further monetary policy easing to help alleviate tight financial conditions, particularly to (1) support businesses affected by U.S. tariff measures, which will exacerbate existing competitiveness challenges, allowing them to better adjust amid intensifying foreign competition; and (2) ease the financial burdens of vulnerable economic sectors. Looking ahead, the MPC judges that monetary policy should remain accommodative to support the economy, while maintaining a balanced approach to medium-term stability, given the limited policy space and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission.

The MPC Expects the Thai Economy to Slow in H2/2025, While Inflation Remains Low Due to Supply-Side Factors

· The MPC judges that the Thai Economic outlook remains largely unchanged from the previous assessment. In the June 2025 meeting, the MPC projected Thai GDP growth at 2.3%YOY and 1.7%YOY in 2025 and 2026, respectively. The MPC assessed that Q2 economic growth would outperform previous expectations, primarily driven by merchandise exports and manufacturing, following a surge in merchandise exports to the U.S.

· The MPC expects economic growth to slow in H2/2025. This slowdown is partly attributed to the front-loaded production and export of goods to the U.S. market in the first half of the year. Moreover, the MPC expects other key economic drivers, particularly the tourism sector, to lose momentum going forward. The MPC may revise down its foreign tourist arrival projections in the upcoming October 2025 meeting. As of the June 2025 meeting, the forecasts stood at 35 million and 38 million international arrivals in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

· The MPC stresses the need to monitor the impact of transshipment tariffs and intensifying import competition. The MPC assesses that while the import tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Thai goods are not significantly less favorable than those applied to competitors, the elevated overall tariff levels, along with upcoming measures such as transshipment-related tariffs and product-specific duties (e.g., on electronics), could dampen global export demand. This may lead to intensified competition with medium-term implications. Consequently, the adjustment of the business sector will be a key factor in supporting Thai economic recovery going forward.

· Headline inflation remains low due to supply-side factors. Raw food prices declined due to increased supply, while energy prices fell mainly in line with global crude oil prices. However, there has yet to be a broad-based decline in the prices of other goods and services, as reflected in core inflation, which remains stable at around 1%.


The MPC Will Monitor Credit Contraction and the Appreciation of the Baht, Which May Affect Future Economic Activity

·  Credit contraction may further strain vulnerable economic sectors. The ongoing credit contraction stems from declines in SME and household lending, partly due to financial institutions’ increased caution in extending new credit to high-risk borrowers. At the same time, lending to large businesses has also slowed in line with reduced credit demand amid elevated economic uncertainty.

· USDTHB has appreciated against regional currencies, in line with weaker U.S. Dollar Index and rising gold prices.

· The MPC maintains that monetary policy needs to remain “accommodative,” while acknowledging limited policy space and diminishing transmission effectiveness. To date, the policy rate has been reduced by a cumulative of 1.0 percentage point from 2.50% at the beginning of 2024 to the current level of 1.50%. Going forward, the MPC will carefully consider the remaining limited policy space and the declining effectiveness of monetary transmission in a low interest rate environment.